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      "official": 0.096,
      "nowcast": 0.386,
      "error": 0.29
    },
    {
      "month": "2026-02",
      "official": 0.694,
      "nowcast": 0.03,
      "error": -0.664
    },
    {
      "month": "2026-03",
      "official": 2.3,
      "nowcast": 0.291,
      "error": -2.009
    },
    {
      "month": "2026-04",
      "official": null,
      "nowcast": 0.554,
      "error": null
    },
    {
      "month": "2026-05",
      "official": null,
      "nowcast": 3.113,
      "error": null
    }
  ],
  "category_contributions": [
    {
      "category": "Fuel / Transport (non-core)",
      "weight": 0.17,
      "data_available": true
    },
    {
      "category": "Food (non-core, volatile)",
      "weight": 0.1,
      "data_available": true
    },
    {
      "category": "Core / Services",
      "weight": 0.73,
      "data_available": false
    }
  ],
  "backtest_metrics": {
    "rmse": 0.369,
    "mae": 0.27,
    "r2": -0.073,
    "note": "computed live from backtest parquet, target=ipc_monthly_var"
  }
}