{
  "metadata": {
    "method": "NTL dry-season spatial weights + tanh-adjusted indicator differentials",
    "target_period": "2026-Q1",
    "national_gdp_yoy": 2.81,
    "n_departments": 25,
    "ntl_basis": "dry-season months (May-Oct), most recent year",
    "indicator_months": 3,
    "indicators": [
      "credit_by_department",
      "electricity_by_department",
      "tax_revenue_by_department"
    ],
    "adjustment_formula": "adj = 4.0 × tanh(z / 2.0); z = (composite - cross_median) / IQR_scale",
    "note": "NTL (VIIRS VNP46A3) serves as spatial weights reflecting each department's share of economic activity (cross-sectional R²=0.81). Growth signals come from credit, electricity, and tax revenue — indicators with direct economic content. NTL growth rates showed insufficient correlation with departmental GDP growth (median r=0.09) and are not used as growth predictors. Indicators with |YoY|>50% excluded (electricity splice artefact fix). tanh adjustment ensures no two departments produce identical growth rates."
  },
  "departmental_nowcasts": [
    {
      "dept_code": "01",
      "department": "Amazonas",
      "gdp_yoy": 0.4,
      "adj_pp": -2.41,
      "ntl_share": 0.0108,
      "gdp_contribution": 0.0043,
      "composite_yoy": -5.67,
      "z_score": -1.285
    },
    {
      "dept_code": "02",
      "department": "Ancash",
      "gdp_yoy": -0.33,
      "adj_pp": -3.14,
      "ntl_share": 0.0343,
      "gdp_contribution": -0.0114,
      "composite_yoy": -10.67,
      "z_score": -1.945
    },
    {
      "dept_code": "03",
      "department": "Apurímac",
      "gdp_yoy": 3.71,
      "adj_pp": 0.9,
      "ntl_share": 0.0138,
      "gdp_contribution": 0.0511,
      "composite_yoy": 8.08,
      "z_score": 0.531
    },
    {
      "dept_code": "04",
      "department": "Arequipa",
      "gdp_yoy": 2.84,
      "adj_pp": 0.03,
      "ntl_share": 0.0783,
      "gdp_contribution": 0.222,
      "composite_yoy": 4.7,
      "z_score": 0.085
    },
    {
      "dept_code": "05",
      "department": "Ayacucho",
      "gdp_yoy": 5.19,
      "adj_pp": 2.38,
      "ntl_share": 0.0139,
      "gdp_contribution": 0.0719,
      "composite_yoy": 15.29,
      "z_score": 1.485
    },
    {
      "dept_code": "06",
      "department": "Cajamarca",
      "gdp_yoy": 2.67,
      "adj_pp": -0.14,
      "ntl_share": 0.0354,
      "gdp_contribution": 0.0943,
      "composite_yoy": 4.05,
      "z_score": 0.0
    },
    {
      "dept_code": "07",
      "department": "Callao",
      "gdp_yoy": 2.41,
      "adj_pp": -0.4,
      "ntl_share": 0.0303,
      "gdp_contribution": 0.0732,
      "composite_yoy": 3.09,
      "z_score": -0.127
    },
    {
      "dept_code": "08",
      "department": "Cusco",
      "gdp_yoy": 2.5,
      "adj_pp": -0.31,
      "ntl_share": 0.0531,
      "gdp_contribution": 0.133,
      "composite_yoy": 3.43,
      "z_score": -0.082
    },
    {
      "dept_code": "09",
      "department": "Huancavelica",
      "gdp_yoy": 2.06,
      "adj_pp": -0.75,
      "ntl_share": 0.006,
      "gdp_contribution": 0.0124,
      "composite_yoy": 1.76,
      "z_score": -0.303
    },
    {
      "dept_code": "10",
      "department": "Huánuco",
      "gdp_yoy": 1.88,
      "adj_pp": -0.93,
      "ntl_share": 0.0125,
      "gdp_contribution": 0.0235,
      "composite_yoy": 1.04,
      "z_score": -0.398
    },
    {
      "dept_code": "11",
      "department": "Ica",
      "gdp_yoy": 2.81,
      "adj_pp": 0.0,
      "ntl_share": 0.0438,
      "gdp_contribution": 0.1231,
      "composite_yoy": 4.61,
      "z_score": 0.074
    },
    {
      "dept_code": "12",
      "department": "Junín",
      "gdp_yoy": 2.18,
      "adj_pp": -0.63,
      "ntl_share": 0.0427,
      "gdp_contribution": 0.0931,
      "composite_yoy": 2.22,
      "z_score": -0.243
    },
    {
      "dept_code": "13",
      "department": "La Libertad",
      "gdp_yoy": 1.09,
      "adj_pp": -1.72,
      "ntl_share": 0.0516,
      "gdp_contribution": 0.0564,
      "composite_yoy": -2.24,
      "z_score": -0.832
    },
    {
      "dept_code": "14",
      "department": "Lambayeque",
      "gdp_yoy": 4.5,
      "adj_pp": 1.69,
      "ntl_share": 0.0458,
      "gdp_contribution": 0.206,
      "composite_yoy": 11.56,
      "z_score": 0.991
    },
    {
      "dept_code": "15",
      "department": "Lima",
      "gdp_yoy": 3.35,
      "adj_pp": 0.54,
      "ntl_share": 0.2701,
      "gdp_contribution": 0.905,
      "composite_yoy": 6.67,
      "z_score": 0.345
    },
    {
      "dept_code": "16",
      "department": "Loreto",
      "gdp_yoy": 3.87,
      "adj_pp": 1.06,
      "ntl_share": 0.0441,
      "gdp_contribution": 0.1708,
      "composite_yoy": 8.75,
      "z_score": 0.62
    },
    {
      "dept_code": "17",
      "department": "Madre de Dios",
      "gdp_yoy": 5.3,
      "adj_pp": 2.49,
      "ntl_share": 0.0099,
      "gdp_contribution": 0.0523,
      "composite_yoy": 15.99,
      "z_score": 1.577
    },
    {
      "dept_code": "18",
      "department": "Moquegua",
      "gdp_yoy": 3.02,
      "adj_pp": 0.21,
      "ntl_share": 0.0209,
      "gdp_contribution": 0.0631,
      "composite_yoy": 5.39,
      "z_score": 0.176
    },
    {
      "dept_code": "19",
      "department": "Pasco",
      "gdp_yoy": 0.91,
      "adj_pp": -1.9,
      "ntl_share": 0.0096,
      "gdp_contribution": 0.0087,
      "composite_yoy": -3.09,
      "z_score": -0.944
    },
    {
      "dept_code": "20",
      "department": "Piura",
      "gdp_yoy": 3.68,
      "adj_pp": 0.87,
      "ntl_share": 0.0775,
      "gdp_contribution": 0.2851,
      "composite_yoy": 7.97,
      "z_score": 0.517
    },
    {
      "dept_code": "21",
      "department": "Puno",
      "gdp_yoy": 2.74,
      "adj_pp": -0.07,
      "ntl_share": 0.032,
      "gdp_contribution": 0.0877,
      "composite_yoy": 4.33,
      "z_score": 0.036
    },
    {
      "dept_code": "22",
      "department": "San Martín",
      "gdp_yoy": 0.95,
      "adj_pp": -1.86,
      "ntl_share": 0.0188,
      "gdp_contribution": 0.0178,
      "composite_yoy": -2.91,
      "z_score": -0.92
    },
    {
      "dept_code": "23",
      "department": "Tacna",
      "gdp_yoy": 3.98,
      "adj_pp": 1.17,
      "ntl_share": 0.0181,
      "gdp_contribution": 0.0719,
      "composite_yoy": 9.22,
      "z_score": 0.683
    },
    {
      "dept_code": "24",
      "department": "Tumbes",
      "gdp_yoy": 0.25,
      "adj_pp": -2.56,
      "ntl_share": 0.0115,
      "gdp_contribution": 0.0029,
      "composite_yoy": -6.52,
      "z_score": -1.398
    },
    {
      "dept_code": "25",
      "department": "Ucayali",
      "gdp_yoy": -0.53,
      "adj_pp": -3.34,
      "ntl_share": 0.0154,
      "gdp_contribution": -0.0082,
      "composite_yoy": -12.58,
      "z_score": -2.198
    }
  ]
}