{
  "metadata": {
    "generated_at": "2026-05-27T21:10:49.332732",
    "methodology": "Dynamic Factor Model with Ridge bridge equation (Baker 2023, Aruoba 2020)",
    "model": "DynamicFactorModel",
    "model_params": {
      "k_factors": 3,
      "factor_order": 1,
      "bridge_method": "ridge",
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      "rolling_window_years": 7,
      "exclude_covid": true
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    "n_indicators": 36,
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    },
    "data_vintage": "2026-01",
    "series_coverage": "36/36"
  },
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    "unit": "percent_yoy",
    "bridge_r2": 0.557
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    {
      "quarter": "2026-Q2",
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    {
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      "quarter": "2011-Q4",
      "official": 6.01,
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    {
      "quarter": "2012-Q1",
      "official": 6.11,
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    {
      "quarter": "2012-Q2",
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    },
    {
      "quarter": "2012-Q3",
      "official": 7.02,
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      "error": -0.76
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    {
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    {
      "quarter": "2013-Q1",
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    {
      "quarter": "2013-Q2",
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      "quarter": "2013-Q3",
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      "official": 1.82,
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      "official": 1.07,
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      "quarter": "2021-Q1",
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      "quarter": "2021-Q2",
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      "quarter": "2023-Q3",
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      "quarter": "2023-Q4",
      "official": -0.43,
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      "quarter": "2024-Q1",
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      "quarter": "2024-Q2",
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      "official": 5.83,
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      "official": 2.45,
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      "official": 3.22,
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      "year": 2021,
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    },
    {
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    {
      "quarter": "2025-Q2",
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    {
      "quarter": "2025-Q4",
      "official": 3.17,
      "nowcast": null,
      "error": null,
      "is_forecast": false
    },
    {
      "quarter": "2026-Q1",
      "official": null,
      "nowcast": 2.81,
      "error": null,
      "is_forecast": true
    }
  ],
  "forecast_vs_actual": [
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      "quarter": "2023-Q4",
      "official": -0.43,
      "nowcast": 1.42,
      "error": 1.85
    },
    {
      "quarter": "2024-Q1",
      "official": 1.49,
      "nowcast": 1.63,
      "error": 0.14
    },
    {
      "quarter": "2024-Q2",
      "official": 3.86,
      "nowcast": 1.72,
      "error": -2.13
    },
    {
      "quarter": "2024-Q3",
      "official": 4.1,
      "nowcast": 2.48,
      "error": -1.62
    },
    {
      "quarter": "2024-Q4",
      "official": 4.44,
      "nowcast": 3.42,
      "error": -1.03
    },
    {
      "quarter": "2025-Q1",
      "official": 4.03,
      "nowcast": 4.85,
      "error": 0.82
    },
    {
      "quarter": "2025-Q2",
      "official": 2.84,
      "nowcast": 4.22,
      "error": 1.38
    },
    {
      "quarter": "2025-Q3",
      "official": 3.77,
      "nowcast": 3.43,
      "error": -0.34
    }
  ],
  "subcomponent_contributions": [],
  "top_contributors": [
    {
      "series": "Manufacturing production index",
      "loading": 0.84
    },
    {
      "series": "Non-traditional exports",
      "loading": 0.71
    },
    {
      "series": "Tax revenue (IGV)",
      "loading": 0.68
    },
    {
      "series": "Formal employment (urban)",
      "loading": 0.65
    },
    {
      "series": "Credit to private sector",
      "loading": 0.59
    }
  ],
  "backtest_metrics": {
    "rmse": 1.41,
    "mae": 1.05,
    "r2": 0.89,
    "relative_rmse_vs_ar1": 0.695
  }
}